The venerable Tenzin Gyatso, known across the globe as His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama – or HHDL, as he is often referred to – will turn 90 on the 6th of July, 2025. For the millions who revere him, both within the Tibetan community and beyond, this is not just a birthday celebration but an occasion to honour a life dedicated to peace, compassion, and spiritual leadership.

There will naturally be both official and unofficial events commemorating the occasion. Spiritual gatherings, prayer sessions, cultural programmes, and public expressions of devotion will take place across countries where the Dalai Lama’s message of universal compassion has found resonance.

For his countless lay admirers, there will also be the anticipation of a message from HHDL, perhaps some words of wisdom to help navigate these uncertain times. Many believe that, as the embodiment of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion, His Holiness may once again offer a message that transcends religious boundaries and speaks to the soul of a troubled world.

Traditionally, the Dalai Lama has held both spiritual and temporal authority over Tibet. Even after being forced into exile in 1959, HHDL continued to shoulder both responsibilities. However, in 2011, he voluntarily relinquished his political role, transferring temporal authority to a democratically elected leadership of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), based in Dharamshala.

For quite some time now, the media have been rife with speculations that the Dalai Lama might use the occasion of his 90th birthday to speak about his reincarnation or even offer some details about the 15th Dalai Lama. Senior leaders of the CTA were quoted to bolster such speculations. 

At the heart of the issue lies a growing international concern over China’s claims that it alone has the authority to recognise the next Dalai Lama. China has been insisting that it would oversee the process of identifying the next incarnation.

This is seen by many as an attempt to co-opt the spiritual authority of Tibetan Buddhism to tighten political control over Tibet and diminish the influence of the Tibetan Government-in-Exile. Beijing’s strategy is calculated.  If it can appoint a successor who gains even partial recognition through state propaganda and international diplomacy, China will try to present its chosen figure as the “real” Dalai Lama, thereby muddying the waters and weakening the global movement for Tibetan rights.

But China’s line of thinking is likely to face a formidable obstacle. For devout Tibetan Buddhists, the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama is a sacred process, governed by centuries-old rituals and divine insight. It is the prerogative of the incumbent Dalai Lama to leave behind signs indicating the circumstances and location of his rebirth. High-ranking lamas then interpret these signs through a rigorous and spiritually guided process to locate and identify the new incarnation.

Putting all rumours to rest, the Dalai Lama himself made a statement on 2nd July, ahead of his birthday, that the institution of the Dalai Lama would continue. He also stated that the Gaden Phodrang Foundation, a trust he founded in 2015, would locate and identify his successor.  He made it categorical that only this trust, and no one else, had any role to play in the matter of his successor, thus ruling out any attempt by the Chinese government to hoist its choice as the next Dalai Lama.

Now that the question of the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lama is settled, the speculation has shifted to where the new Dalai Lama would be found upon the passing of the incumbent Dalai Lama. The 14th Dalai Lama has made an important disclosure in this regard in his recent writing, that his successor will be born in the “free world”— a clear message that rules out a birth in Tibet under Chinese control. This, together with his latest statement, has settled the matter so far as the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan Government in Exile are concerned.

As expected, the Dalai Lama’s announcement has caused consternation in Beijing. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson quickly rejected the “plan of succession” as announced at Dharamsala. China may further accuse India, where the Dalai Lama has been in exile since 1959, of playing a role in sustaining what it sees as separatist sentiments among the Tibetans. That is a charge India has been careful to deflect for years, even as it continues to provide refuge and support to the Tibetan diaspora.

India’s response was quick and clear. And at a sufficiently high level, too. Parliamentary Affairs and Minorities Minister Kiren Rijiju said that the right to decide on his successor rested solely with the Dalai Lama, following Buddhist customs. The Minister also dismissed China’s objection to the Dalai Lama’s announcement as unnecessary interference.

According to reports from Beijing, in a press briefing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry advised India to be cautious about interfering in Tibetan affairs, keeping in mind the India-China bilateral relations.   

Within twenty-four hours, the official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs seemed to play down the matter.  He told reporters on the 4th of July that the Government of India did not take a stand on matters of faith and religion.  It seems that, given the present status of our bilateral relations with China which, though much improved, was still very delicate, the government of India tried to distance itself from what Minister Rijiju had said on the Dalai Lama’s successor issue.

The External Affairs Minister is scheduled to visit China soon to attend a conference related to the SCO.  This will be the first bilateral visit of the EAM to China since the COVID outbreak and the border standoff between the two armies. Naturally, India won’t like any distraction at this moment.

Only time will tell how far this issue will cast its shadow on the delicate India-China relations. Furthermore, while India, as the host of the Dalai Lama in exile, is the immediate target of China’s ire, Western countries, foremost among them the US, hold the Dalai Lama in high esteem and consider that China had unjustly forced him out of Tibet. The position to be taken by these countries on the subject of the next Dalai Lama is not difficult to guess, although they will also be careful not to risk their relations with China beyond a point.  Thus, the issue of the successor to the 14th Dalai Lama is likely to have international ramifications, and observers will keenly watch the developments.

Meanwhile, we extend our warmest wishes and deep respect to His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama on his 90th birthday.

I recall that some 15 years ago, His Holiness told me in a jocular vein that some astrologer had predicted that HHDL would live for 113 years. I wish that he disproves this prediction and may his luminous life dedicated to truth, humility, and compassion continue to guide humanity for many more years to come.